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3
Jul

2026年7月3日--每日新闻

calendar 03/07/2026 - 07:20 UTC

Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy added only 57,000 jobs in June—missing the consensus estimate of 110,000.

The United States Dollar Index (DXY) faced renewed downward pressure on Thursday, closing 0.55% lower as market participants actively scaled back aggressive interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve. The marginal slide pulled the greenback down toward the 100.80 level during subsequent Asian trading hours on Friday. This downward momentum was heavily fueled by the highly anticipated June Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which caught traders off guard by missing consensus forecasts by a wide margin.

The labor data revealed that the U.S. economy generated just 57K new jobs in June, stalling far below the estimated 110K addition. Compounding the bearish sentiment, May’s previously resilient employment figures were sharply revised downward to 129K from the initial 172K report. Despite the hiring slump, the labor report contained mixed signals: the unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked down to 4.2% against projections of 4.3%, while Average Hourly Earnings aligned with forecasts by accelerating to 3.5% year-on-year.

Nevertheless, the soft headline job growth was enough to cool hawkish monetary policy projections. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, market odds favoring a Fed interest rate hike at the upcoming September meeting recoiled to 53.2%, dropping from the nearly 64% probability held earlier in the week. With the employment hurdle cleared, currency investors are now shifting their attention to Monday's upcoming U.S. ISM Services PMI release, looking to gauge health indicators from a sector that drives two-thirds of domestic economic activity.

U.S. stock index futures pushed higher on Thursday evening as market participants reacted to a weaker-than-expected June employment report, which effectively cooled fears of any imminent interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. The broad headline indexes saw a varied regular session on Thursday, with blue-chip equities surging to a fresh record closing high while the tech-heavy benchmarks faced pressure due to an ongoing rotation away from high-growth sectors. Wall Street trading desks will remain dark on Friday in observance of the July 4th holiday. The market's primary catalyst was the Labor Department's data showing the U.S. economy added just 57,000 jobs in June—falling sharply short of the 110,000 forecast.

This macro backdrop triggered sharp divergences across major tech and automotive heavyweights in their latest regular session. Apple Inc (+4.75%) provided a major cushion for the market, rallying strongly on the back of reports indicating the tech giant plans an aggressive product rollout with at least five new iPhone models slated between late 2026 and early 2027. In contrast, the broader hardware rotation kept pressure on semiconductor darling Nvidia Corp (-1.46%). Meanwhile, Tesla Inc (-7.53%) suffered a steep decline as investors locked in profits despite the EV maker posting better-than-expected second-quarter deliveries. Defying the tech sector's volatility, private aerospace leader SpaceX (+2.71%) managed to push higher, drawing steady demand in secondary trading circles.

Asian equities staged a strong rebound on Friday as intense bargain hunting in technology shares combined with easing geopolitical tensions and renewed hopes for a cooling U.S. labor market. Following a highly volatile week marked by steep, AI-infrastructure-related profit-taking, investors aggressively stepped back into core semiconductor names, treating the recent dip as a prime opportunity to rebuild exposure in high-quality tech companies.

欧元/美元

周四,欧元兑美元汇率走强,EUR/USD攀升至九天高点。此前弱于预期的美国非农就业(NFP)数据加剧了市场对美联储未来可能不会过于激进加息的预期。

根据美国劳工统计局的数据,美国经济6月份仅新增5.7万个就业岗位,远低于市场预期的11万个。此外,5月份的就业数据被下调至12.9万个(此前报告为17.2万个),进一步印证了劳动力市场降温的迹象。尽管整体就业数字疲软,但失业率意外从4.3%微降至4.2%,而平均时薪环比增长0.3%,同比增长3.5%,符合市场预期。

在本时段早些时候,由于本周早些时候USD/JPY飙升至40年高点后,市场猜测日本当局可能已经对外汇市场进行了干预,美元已经承受压力。NFP报告公布后,抛售加速,将美元指数(DXY)推至两周低点。然而,美元的跌势可能受到限制,因为更广泛的就业报告并未能改变美联储的通胀前景。

与此同时,本周早些时候公布的弱于预期的欧元区通胀数据降低了市场对欧洲央行今年再次加息的预期,从而限制了欧元的长期上涨空间。

欧元/美元

黄金

周五,黄金价格连续第三个交易日扩大反弹幅度,在亚洲交易时段,因弱于预期的美国就业数据令美元承压,并刺激了对无息贵金属的需求,现货黄金(XAU/USD)向4,200美元关口攀升。目前,金价已从2025年11月以来的最低水平回升,并有望录得五周以来的首次周度上涨。

疲软的劳动力市场数据促使投资者下调对美联储进一步收紧政策的预期,通过降低持有无息资产的机会成本来支撑黄金。近期原油价格下跌导致通胀压力缓解,也令交易员感到宽慰,促使市场下调了对未来加息的预期。受此影响,美元在两周低点附近持续承压,为黄金提供了额外支撑。

尽管黄金面临利好背景,但挥之不去的地缘政治风险可能会阻止美元出现更大幅度的下跌,并限制贵金属的进一步上涨。有报告指出,美国官员担心以色列可能会在间接谈判中针对伊朗高级谈判代表,引发了人们对这种行动可能会破坏外交努力并重新点燃地区紧张局势的担忧。与此同时,伊朗军方发出警告,美国在霍尔木兹海峡的任何参与都将引发迅速而果断的回应,使地缘政治不确定性保持在高位。

展望未来,由于美国金融市场因独立日假期休市,交易活动可能会保持清淡。

黄金

WTI美原油

周五在美国独立日假期前,原油价格轻微走高,投资者对美美和伊朗之间的外交努力可能有助于维护中东稳定的前景持谨慎乐观态度。

尽管周五有所上涨,但两个原油基准价格在上一交易日均触及了2月下旬因伊朗介入导致美以冲突升级以来的最低水平。市场情绪保持谨慎建设性,交易员在“停火及外交努力将得以维持的希望”与“挥之不去的地缘政治不确定性”之间寻找平衡。

注意力还集中在通过霍尔木兹海峡的石油供应流量上。霍尔木兹海峡是一条至关重要的航运路线,此前承担了全球约五分之一的石油和液化天然气出口。随着海上交通逐渐恢复正常,数家产油国已采取行动增加出口。

据知情人士透漏,科威特6月份将原油产量大幅提高至每日约165万桶,远高于5月份的每日58万桶。该产量的增加得益于美国与伊朗之间达成的临时和平协议,并使该欧佩克(OPEC)成员国得以扩大出口。

与此同时,至少有五艘装载着估计达1000万桶沙特原油的超级油轮已成功通过霍尔木兹海峡。据报道,沙特阿美(Saudi Aramco)也已将部分亚洲货物的定价转为现货定价以加速销售,这反映出市场对该地区航运条件的信心正在改善。

WTI美原油

美国S&P500

美国股市周四收盘涨跌互现,科技股和半导体股的疲软抵消了由弱于预期的6月就业报告所带来的乐观情绪,该报告减少了市场对美联储进一步加息的预期。尽管表现参差不齐,但在独立日假期前的这个缩短的交易周里,华尔街最终仍录得稳健上涨。

投资者的注意力集中在6月份的美国就业报告上,该报告显示经济仅增加了5.7万个非农就业岗位,远低于预期的11万个,且低于5月份修正后的12.9万个。就业增长主要集中在专业和商业服务、医疗保健以及社会救助领域,而休闲和酒店业的就业人数有所下降。

疲软的就业报告促使投资者规模性下调对美联储进一步收紧政策的预期。随着近期美伊达成临时和平协议后油价下跌,通胀压力有所缓解,市场越来越多地预期美联储将维持利率不变,而不是再次加息。

有报道称Meta Platforms正在探索通过向外部客户提供过剩的AI计算能力来实现变现的方法,这也引发了市场的担忧,引发了人们猜测主要科技公司可能会开始放缓基础设施投资的迅猛步伐,而这一步伐此前正是推动AI芯片需求的主要动力。

特斯拉也对科技板块造成了拖累,尽管其报告了创纪录的、超出市场预期的季度汽车交付量。在业绩公布前强劲反弹后,由于投资者锁定收益,该股面临获利回吐的压力。

美国股市周四收盘涨跌互现,科技股和半导体股的疲软抵消了由弱于预期的6月就业报告所带来的乐观情绪,该报告减少了市场对美联储进一步加息的预期。尽管表现参差不齐,但在独立日假期前的这个缩短的交易周里,华尔街最终仍录得稳健上涨。

展望未来,投资者将继续密切关注即将公布的通胀和劳动力市场数据,以寻找美联储政策路径的进一步线索;同时,在经历了今年上半年的惊人反弹后,市场的注意力也将继续聚焦于AI领域的发展。

美国S&P500

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